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Friday, October 17, 2008

Pertumbuhan KDNK 2008 dan 2009?

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Seorang Pengawai ekonomi Malaysia meramalkan pertumbuhan ekonomi Malaysia pada 2008(KDNK) adalah pada kadar 5.7%. dan pada tahun 2009 dijangka pada kadar 5.4%.

Tetapi banyak pakar ekonomi sekarang sudah membuat perkiraan terhadap angkanya seperti di bawah :


Economy 2008:

  • October 15, Bank Negara Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz said growth for Malaysia's 2008 economy will probably be between 5% and 5.5%, below the official forecast.
  • October 16: Dr Mohamed Ariff Abdul Kareem of the Malaysian Institute of Economic Research (MIER) said the country's 2008 GDP growth is estimated at 5.3%, lower than Bank Negara's figure.

Economy 2009:

  • October 15: Bank Negara's Zeti Akhtar Aziz said Malaysia's economy may expand as little as 4% in 2009.
  • October 16: With the outlook for the global economy turning increasingly dismal, MIER's Dr Mohamed Ariff said Malaysia's 2009 GDP growth could decelerate to 3.4%, lower than Bank Negara's figure.

With that, MIER warned of a possible recession in Malaysia if the U.S. economy deteriorates. Quote:

"There is a 40 percent chance that Malaysia will enter technical recession in 2009, meaning two quarters of negative growth and a 30 percent chance it could be a real recession lasting more than two quarters depending on what happens in the U.S.," he said.

MIER said the global credit crisis showed no signs of abating despite concerted interest rate cuts and massive liquidity injection by governments and central banks worldwide. The institute said consumer and business confidence in Malaysia has dipped and warned conditions would worsen if the credit squeeze dries up funds for investment and household spending.

Ariff said there are heightened concerns that the current global economic slump could drag on until the end of 2010 or 2011.

Oleh itu dari apa yang pakar ekonomi meramalkan akan sesuatu berlaku pada ekonomi Malaysia, dan saya fikir kerajaan perlu membentangkan semula Belanjawan 2009 selewat-lewatnya akhir bulan ini untuk menangani krisis ekonomi yang melanda dunia akhir ini. Kita perlu melihat kepada angka pendapatan negara sekarang untuk perbelanjaan pada tahun hadapan dan bukannya kepada data yang lama seperti yang disuarakan oleh Ketua Pembangkang di Parlimen. Saya mengharapkan Menteri Kewangan baru dapat peka dengan permasalahan ini dan cuba mencari jalan penyelesaian sebaik mungkin untuk mengelakkan ia lebih buruk seperti terjadi pada tahun 1997-98.

Anda boleh melihat pengumpulan data tentang ekonomi Malaysia yang diramalkan oleh Economist.com




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